Source: YouTube URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLlGt31bVQA Date: 2025-11-25 Duration: 20:25
Portfolio manager identifies three deeply undervalued stocks to buy during market sell-off: PayPal (P/E 12, half of S&P 500), AMD (35% projected revenue growth, $9.2B quarterly revenue), and Chipotle ($32/share with $5-6 upside to moving average). These stocks are “underlooked” and trading at significant discounts despite strong fundamentals and growth catalysts.
The video opens with a contrarian investment thesis: “When most people are running for the hills, you should be buying up. You should be taking advantage of other people’s mistakes.” The presenter argues that market sell-offs create opportunities for disciplined value investors while emotional sellers lock in losses.
Historical Pattern: Every market correction creates wealth transfer - 95% of retail investors lose money by panic selling, while 5% become millionaires through disciplined buying at discounts.
Current Valuation Crisis: - Stock down 30% over past year - P/E ratio of 12 (less than half S&P 500 average) - $57B market cap with room to double to $100B - Trading at “dirt cheap” valuations that would require doubling just to match market average
Turnaround Catalysts: 1. Cost Cutting: CEO Alex Chris aggressively reducing expenses 2. Growth Initiatives: OpenAI partnerships, Venmo expansion, branded checkout improvements 3. Digital Payments Secular Tailwind: Industry projected to grow 11-21% annually for next 5 years 4. Network Effects: Two-sided marketplace (more users attract more merchants, creating virtuous cycle) 5. Value-Added Services: Buy-now-pay-later, crypto services, digital wallet (Venmo)
The Meta Comparison: PayPal’s situation mirrors Meta’s transformation three years ago when stock went from $100 to $600 after being heavily out of favor. Key quote: “Not that long ago, Meta was right here. Nobody wanted it… Meta stock went from 100 to 600 in three years.”
Investment Thesis: If PayPal executes even half of Meta’s turnaround trajectory, investors would see substantial returns. The presenter emphasizes that forward guidance in next few quarters will be critical - if management signals stronger digital wallet adoption and AI-driven transaction margins, stock re-rating will begin immediately.
Risk Assessment: The presenter acknowledges PayPal has been “left behind” for years and is considered a “fading fintech story” by many investors. However, internal business changes and partnerships suggest potential inflection point.
Recent Performance & Current Setup: - Portfolio manager holds AMD as long-term investment (no current options positions) - Previously recommended LEAPS calls earlier in year that “absolutely printed” - Stock has pulled back significantly, creating fresh entry opportunity - Position entry: $90/share (currently profitable)
Fundamental Strength - Q3 2025 Results: - Total Revenue: $9.2B (+36% YoY) - Data Center Revenue: $4.3B (+22% YoY) - Client & Gaming Segment: $4B (+73% YoY) - described as “profit pool”
Forward Projections: - Revenue Growth: 35% CAGR projected for next 3-5 years - Comparison potential: “AMD could be the next Nvidia” (acknowledging not to same degree, but similar return trajectory)
Value Proposition: The presenter emphasizes buying quality stocks at discounts rather than chasing momentum: “I’m not a fan of buying stocks at 52-week highs… What I like instead is when I see value, you want a deal, right?”
Options Income Strategy - Cash-Secured Put Example: - Strategy: Sell $210 strike puts expiring in 11 days - Premium Collected: $590 on $20K collateral requirement - Return: ~3% in 11 days (annualized ~100%) - Delta: 38 (moderate probability of assignment) - Volume: 2,000 contracts (high liquidity) - Logic: Better than limit buy at $215 - collect income while waiting for assignment - Risk Management: “You’re not going to lose the max loss. That’s if stock went to zero, which is not going to happen.”
Personal Track Record: - Palantir (PLTR): Entry at $22, currently +612% return - AMD: Entry at $90, significant gains from LEAPS strategy - Philosophy: “You don’t have to be the best at timing… You just literally need good stock selection.”
Current Position & Status: - Portfolio allocation: 1.44% ($62K current value) - Average cost: $39/share - Currently underwater on position (honest admission) - Strategy: Running out-of-the-money covered calls at $32.50 strike for income generation - Historical context: Previously profitable on position purchased during E.coli outbreak years ago
Bull Case - Long-Term Expansion: 1. Store Count Growth: Management target of 7,000 locations in US/Canada (massive expansion runway) 2. Digital Business Strength: Q3 2025 digital sales = 36.7% of food/beverage revenue (+37% growth) - Higher margin business - More predictable revenue stream - Chipotle Lane pickup lanes driving adoption 3. Brand Positioning: Fast-casual model (higher quality than fast food, quicker than full-service) 4. Menu Flexibility: Keto, high-protein, various dietary options appeal to broad consumer base 5. Strong Brand: Quick, convenient, healthier than traditional fast food
Bear Case - Fundamental Challenges: 1. Same-Store Sales Declining: Major red flag indicating pricing resistance - Same-store sales = revenue from existing locations (not new openings) - Decline suggests structural issues or pricing sensitivity 2. Rising Costs: Inflationary pressure on input costs 3. Pricing Headwinds: Average bowl price increased from $8.95 (6 years ago) to $16.70 (current) - Presenter’s personal anecdote: “$8.95 used to be a treat in college, now $16.70 is half an hour’s work” - Consumers pulling back on discretionary dining spending
Pricing Power Thought Experiment: The presenter offers extreme hypothetical: “If Chipotle doubled prices overnight to $30/bowl and lost 20% of customers, would they make more money? Answer is yes.”
This illustrates the tension between pricing and volume: How loyal are customers? How fast can prices rise before volume falls too much?
Technical Analysis: - Stock has “taken the elevator down twice” (sharp sell-offs) - Currently trading at $32/share - Moving average at $37 (resistance level) - Target: $5-6 rise to reach moving average - Pattern: “Stock is flailing like a Magikarp from Pokemon - can’t do nothing”
Investment Thesis: Despite current challenges, Chipotle trading at $32/share appears undervalued relative to long-term expansion potential and brand strength. The key question: Will pricing power sustain revenue growth despite same-store sales declines?
Risk Acknowledgment: Presenter is transparent about being underwater on position and acknowledges same-store sales decline is concerning: “When same store sales decline, boy, that’s bad… that could be a bigger structural issue.”
“When most people are running for the hills or whatever that saying is, you should be buying up. You should be taking advantage of other people’s mistakes.”
“PayPal right now has a PE ratio of 12, literally less than half of the S&P 500. That is dirt cheap. That is stupid cheap.”
“10 P/E - that’s the golden ratio. Right now PayPal is trading at 12 P/E, that is dirt cheap. If this stock were valued where the S&P 500 is, it would have to double in value.”
“Meta stock went from 100 to 600 in three years. If PayPal can follow the Meta trajectory… even if it gets half these results within three years, you’d be out of your mind not to be happy with that.”
“AMD projected revenue growth is 35% per year over the next 3 to 5 years. We’re going to be printing money.”
“You don’t have to be the best at timing. You don’t have to be the best at option trading. You just literally need good stock selection. I’m up 612% on Palantir. Average cost of 22.”
“Man, I’m hooking you up with a nice 3% return in 11 days and you’re getting into AMD at 210. You tell me how that’s not a good deal.”
“When same store sales decline, that could be a bigger structural issue - people are not liking the food maybe as much. But same store sales going down could be pricing, and that’s fine.”
“If Chipotle doubled their prices overnight to $30 per bowl and 20% of people stopped going but the price is doubled, are they going to make more money? Answer is yes.”
投資組合經理在市場拋售期間識別三支被嚴重低估的股票：PayPal（本益比12，為標普500的一半）、AMD（預期營收成長35%，季度營收92億美元）和Chipotle（每股32美元，距離移動平均線有5-6美元上漲空間）。這些股票被「忽視」且儘管基本面強勁和成長催化劑存在，仍以顯著折扣交易。
影片以逆向投資論點開場：「當大多數人逃離時，你應該買進。你應該利用別人的錯誤。」主講者主張市場拋售為有紀律的價值投資者創造機會，而情緒化賣家則鎖定虧損。
歷史模式：每次市場修正都會創造財富轉移 - 95%的散戶投資者因恐慌性拋售而虧損，而5%透過在折扣價格時有紀律地買入成為百萬富翁。
當前估值危機： - 股價過去一年下跌30% - 本益比12（不到標普500平均值的一半） - 市值570億美元，有空間翻倍至1000億美元 - 以「超便宜」的估值交易，需要翻倍才能達到市場平均水平
轉型催化劑： 1. 成本削減：CEO Alex Chris積極降低費用 2. 成長計劃：OpenAI合作夥伴關係、Venmo擴展、品牌結帳改進 3. 數位支付長期趨勢：產業預計未來5年年增11-21% 4. 網路效應：雙邊市場（更多用戶吸引更多商家，創造良性循環） 5. 增值服務：先買後付、加密貨幣服務、數位錢包（Venmo）
Meta類比： PayPal的情況反映了三年前Meta的轉型，當時股價從100美元漲到600美元，之前被嚴重看淡。關鍵引言：「不久前，Meta就在這裡。沒人想要它…Meta股價三年內從100漲到600。」
投資論點：如果PayPal執行Meta轉型軌跡的一半，投資者將看到可觀回報。主講者強調未來幾季的前瞻指引將至關重要 - 如果管理層發出更強的數位錢包採用和AI驅動交易利潤率的信號，股票重估將立即開始。
風險評估：主講者承認PayPal多年來「被落後」，被許多投資者視為「衰退的金融科技故事」。然而，內部業務變化和合作夥伴關係暗示潛在的轉折點。
近期表現與當前設定： - 投資組合經理持有AMD作為長期投資（目前無選擇權部位） - 先前在今年早些時候推薦LEAPS Call「絕對大賺」 - 股價已大幅回落，創造新的進場機會 - 進場價格：每股90美元（目前獲利）
基本面實力 - 2025年Q3結果： - 總營收：92億美元（年增36%） - 資料中心營收：43億美元（年增22%） - 客戶端與遊戲部門：40億美元（年增73%）- 被描述為「利潤池」
前瞻預測： - 營收成長：未來3-5年預期複合年增率35% - 比較潛力：「AMD可能成為下一個Nvidia」（承認不會達到相同程度，但回報軌跡相似）
價值主張： 主講者強調以折扣價買入優質股票，而不是追逐動能：「我不喜歡在52週高點買股票…我喜歡的是當我看到價值時，你想要一個好交易，對吧？」
選擇權收益策略 - 現金擔保Put範例： - 策略：賣出執行價210美元、11天到期的Put - 收取權利金：590美元，保證金要求2萬美元 - 報酬率：11天約3%（年化約100%） - Delta：38（中等被指派機率） - 成交量：2,000口合約（高流動性） - 邏輯：比在215美元設定限價買入更好 - 等待被指派時收取收益 - 風險管理：「你不會損失最大損失。那是如果股票跌到零，這不會發生。」
個人投資紀錄： - Palantir (PLTR)：進場價22美元，目前報酬率+612% - AMD：進場價90美元，LEAPS策略獲得可觀收益 - 哲學：「你不必是最擅長擇時的…你只需要良好的股票選擇。」
當前持倉與狀態： - 投資組合配置：1.44%（62,000美元當前價值） - 平均成本：每股39美元 - 目前持倉虧損（誠實承認） - 策略：執行價32.50美元的價外Covered Call以產生收益 - 歷史背景：先前在多年前E.coli爆發期間購買的持倉曾獲利
看漲論點 - 長期擴張： 1. 門市數量成長：管理層目標在美國/加拿大開設7,000家門市（巨大擴張空間） 2. 數位業務實力：2025年Q3數位銷售 = 食品飲料營收的36.7%（成長37%） - 更高利潤率業務 - 更可預測的營收流 - Chipotle Lane取餐車道推動採用 3. 品牌定位：快速休閒模式（比速食品質更高，比全服務餐廳更快） 4. 菜單靈活性：生酮、高蛋白、各種飲食選擇吸引廣泛消費群 5. 強大品牌：快速、便捷、比傳統速食更健康
看跌論點 - 基本面挑戰： 1. 同店銷售下滑：主要警訊，表明定價阻力 - 同店銷售 = 現有門市營收（非新開門市） - 下滑表明結構性問題或定價敏感性 2. 成本上升：投入成本的通膨壓力 3. 定價阻力：平均餐點價格從8.95美元（6年前）上漲至16.70美元（當前） - 主講者個人軼事：「8.95美元在大學時是一種享受，現在16.70美元是半小時的工作」 - 消費者減少可自由支配的餐飲支出
定價權思想實驗： 主講者提供極端假設：「如果Chipotle一夜之間將價格翻倍至每碗30美元，失去20%的顧客，他們會賺更多錢嗎？答案是肯定的。」
這說明了定價與銷量之間的緊張關係：顧客有多忠誠？在銷量下降過多之前，價格能漲多快？
技術分析： - 股價「搭電梯下跌兩次」（急劇拋售） - 目前交易在每股32美元 - 移動平均線在37美元（阻力位） - 目標：上漲5-6美元以達到移動平均線 - 模式：「股票像寶可夢的鯉魚王一樣掙扎 - 什麼都做不了」
投資論點： 儘管面臨當前挑戰，Chipotle以每股32美元交易，相對於長期擴張潛力和品牌實力似乎被低估。關鍵問題：儘管同店銷售下滑，定價權能否維持營收成長？
風險承認： 主講者對持倉虧損透明，並承認同店銷售下滑令人擔憂：「當同店銷售下滑時，天啊，那很糟…那可能是更大的結構性問題。」
“當大多數人逃離時，你應該買進。你應該利用別人的錯誤。”
“PayPal目前本益比12，確實不到標普500的一半。那是超便宜的。那是愚蠢地便宜。”
“10倍本益比 - 那是黃金比例。現在PayPal以12倍本益比交易，那是超便宜的。如果這支股票以標普500的估值交易，它必須翻倍才能與平均標普500公司持平。”
“Meta股價三年內從100漲到600。如果PayPal能跟隨Meta的軌跡…即使在三年內獲得這些結果的一半，你會瘋狂地不對此感到高興。”
“AMD預期營收成長是未來3到5年每年35%。我們將印鈔票。”
“你不必是最擅長擇時的。你不必是最擅長選擇權交易的。你只需要良好的股票選擇。我在Palantir上漲了612%。平均成本22美元。”
“老兄，我給你11天內3%的漂亮回報，你以210美元買入AMD。你告訴我這對於一支大幅回落、有美好未來的股票來說怎麼不是好交易。”
“當同店銷售下滑時，那可能是更大的結構性問題 - 人們可能不那麼喜歡這個食物了。但同店銷售下降可能是定價問題，那沒關係。”
“如果Chipotle一夜之間將價格翻倍至每碗30美元，20%的人停止光顧但價格翻倍了，他們會賺更多錢嗎？答案是肯定的。”
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