Source: YouTube URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3biPCmgoQk Date: 2025-11-25 Duration: 18:21
Market flipped bullish after Fed officials signaled December rate cut is appropriate, pushing odds from near 0% to 80.93%. Portfolio manager increased Seagate (STX) position to $113K via cash-secured puts and added $30K in Palantir (PLTR) LEAPS call options (Jan 2027 $150 strike). Key technical signals: QQQ +2.59%, VIX dropping from fear levels (20.49), RSI and MACD turning bullish. Cash allocation reduced from 25% to 15% to capitalize on market rebound. Strategy: Wheel strategy on STX ($235 puts, 4.37% ROI), LEAPS on PLTR targeting 25-30% gains on rebound to $180. Both stocks at 21% discount from all-time highs with strong AI fundamentals.
Federal Reserve Pivot: The market experienced a sharp bullish reversal based on two key Federal Reserve communications:
Impact on Rate Cut Probability: - CME Fed Watch Tool shifted dramatically - Previous week: Rate cut odds fell to near 0% (below 55% threshold) - Current: 80.93% probability of December rate cut - Significance: Below 55% = essentially 0% odds, current 80%+ = high confidence
Economic Mechanics: Rate cuts enable businesses and consumers to borrow at cheaper rates → increased spending → liquidity flows into assets (stocks, real estate) → market appreciation. This fundamental mechanism keeps the portfolio manager bullish long-term.
Thanksgiving Week Context: - Historically bullish week despite low volume - Current low volume + strong 2.59% QQQ gain = healthy buying - Orderly gap up with continued buying through session and after-hours
QQQ Technical Setup:
Key Levels: - Current: Gapped up 2.59% with orderly buying - First Resistance: $507.50 (50-day moving average) - Second Resistance: $514.00 on daily timeframe - Expected Target: $514 potentially by midweek
Bullish Indicators: - RSI crossed over bullish on daily chart - MACD preparing to cross bullish for momentum confirmation - After-hours continuation showing strength - Volume slightly thinner but buying orderly (not reversal pattern)
Bearish Scenario Rejected: If QQQ only gained 1-1.2%, would indicate reversal risk. But 2.59% gap up with continuation buying confirms bullish momentum.
VIX Analysis - Fear Subsiding:
Current Level: 20.49 (down from higher levels) - 20-25 range: Extreme fear (current zone) - Target: Sub-20, ideally 18-19 range in next few days
Pattern Recognition: - VIX “dropped off a cliff” today - classic fear subsiding pattern - Not the pattern where VIX holds 23-24 range then spikes higher (previous false rallies) - Clean drop = legitimate fear reduction, not temporary pause
Cash Allocation Strategy Based on VIX: - VIX 20-25 (extreme fear): 15% cash (current allocation) - VIX sub-20: Increase to ~20% cash (take profits) - VIX 19: Target 20% cash allocation - Previous allocation: 25% cash (overly conservative), now 15% to participate in rally
Market Health Reset: Portfolio manager believes Bitcoin overleveraging contributed to recent market correction:
$80,000 Support Level: - Key technical support held - Overleveraged institutions and retail traders using leverage Bitcoin ETFs - Many positions margin called and liquidated at this level
Result: Healthier market structure after washout, enabling more sustainable upward trend without leverage overhang.
Investment Thesis: AI data storage play with attractive valuation and strong insider activity. Critical infrastructure for AI industry’s massive storage needs.
Recent News: “Shares of data storage manufacturer Seagate rose in the afternoon session after reports highlighted the company’s strong fundamental momentum as a key role in growing artificial intelligence industry. Investor optimism fueled by the idea that Seagate was well positioned to meet the massive storage needs of the AI sector.”
Valuation Edge: - P/E Ratio: 32 (attractive for AI sector) - Comparison: NVDA P/E 51, PLTR P/E 300-700 - Positioning: One of “safer plays” in portfolio for AI exposure
Insider Activity (Bullish Signal):
October Pattern: Multiple insiders exercised stock options and retained shares - Exercising right to buy at low strike prices - Keeping shares instead of immediately selling = confidence in upside
Recent Activity (Nov 12): - CFO Romano: Exercised options for 52,000 shares at $80 ($4M value) - Sold 50% of position (normal executive liquidity) - Retained 50% for further upside = bullish confirmation
Why This Matters: Insiders exercising and holding (not just selling) demonstrates conviction in stock appreciation. CFO keeping $2M+ in stock is significant insider confidence signal.
Technical Chart: - Down 23% from all-time highs on Friday - Rebounded 6.69% on this session - RSI never reached oversold territory (relative strength maintained) - Clean chart with consistent rebound pattern after drops - Ideal for wheel strategy: sell cash-secured puts on dips, collect premium
Options Strategy - Cash-Secured Puts:
Current Position: 5 contracts total - December 26th expiration (32 days) - Strikes: $215 and $235 puts - Total Capital: $113,000 at risk - Premium Collected: $5,500 - ROI: 4.37% on capital (annualized ~50%+ if repeated monthly)
Risk Profile: - Willing to be assigned 100 shares per contract at strike prices - $235 strike = 21.5% discount from all-time highs - Assignment level represents strong value entry
Strategy Rationale: “I’m getting paid to dollar cost average. That is what I love to do on quality stocks like this that rebound after every crash, every bear market.”
Entry Discipline: - Only select quality companies with: - Long-term upward trending history (1.5+ years minimum) - Good P/E ratio (reasonable valuation) - Strong premiums (4-6% monthly range preferred) - Rebound pattern after corrections
Wheel Strategy Application: 1. Sell cash-secured puts during drops (current phase) 2. Get assigned shares at discount if put expires ITM 3. Sell covered calls above cost basis for income 4. Repeat cycle for continuous premium income
Monthly Premium Target: 4-6% range consistently achievable on STX
Long-Term Bullish Thesis: - Strong and growing free cash flows - Expanding strategic partnerships (recent Nvidia integration) - Enterprise AI market leadership position
Recent Catalyst - Nvidia Partnership: “Palantir and Nvidia team up to operationalize AI turning enterprise data into dynamic decision intelligence.”
Strategic Significance: - Integration with Nvidia’s massive customer base (largest companies globally) - Palantir benefits from Nvidia’s success and customer relationships - Cross-selling opportunity into Nvidia’s enterprise ecosystem
Insider Selling Analysis - Alex Karp (CEO):
Initial Concern: Karp sold $95M in shares on Friday (Nov 20) during market decline
Context Reveals Bullish Signal: - Nov 2024 (last year): Sold $300M+ over two days (Nov 15) - Continued selling $100M+ in following weeks - Total last year: $400M+ sold in same period
Current Year: Only $95M sold = significantly reduced selling vs previous year
Interpretation: - CEO reduced selling volume by ~75% year-over-year - Scheduled share sales are normal executive compensation - Lower selling volume = potentially more confident in near-term prospects - “He didn’t sell at the right time” - sold at local bottom, suggests not bearish
Technical Setup:
Entry Point: - Purchased LEAPS around $162 - Ideally wanted $148 entry (missed on Friday) - Accepted non-perfect entry due to: - RSI at bottom of range (oversold) - RSI preparing to cross bullish - MACD turning bullish for momentum - 21% discount from ATH $207
Historical Pattern - Lower Bollinger Band Rebounds: Palantir has “notoriously always rebounded from touching these lower Bollinger bands” - Multiple historical examples of rebounds from BB touches - Some rebounds took longer, but pattern consistently played out - Current situation: touching lower BB = high-probability rebound setup
LEAPS Options Position:
Structure: - 6 contracts: January 15, 2027 $150 call options - Total Cost: $29,784 (~$30K) - Time Value: 417 days to expiration - Purpose: “Insurance plan” with ample time to be right
Exit Strategy:
Target Price: $180 (mid-170s to 180 range) - 50-day moving average will act as resistance - From entry $162 → $180 = 11% stock move - Expected Options Gain: 25-30% due to leverage
Timeline: This week to few weeks (flexible with 417 days available)
Risk Management Philosophy: “Give myself enough time to be right. This is just an insurance plan just in case, hey, we head into a bear market or some crazy stuff happens.”
Quick Exit Plan: Target 10-20% gains in 7 days, or 20-40% in 4 weeks (shorter than full LEAPS timeframe allows for tactical exits)
Existing Position - Covered Calls: - 800 shares already owned (assigned from previous puts) - Sold covered calls at $177.50 strike (above cost basis) - Generating income from shares while waiting for appreciation
Value Perspective: “From all-time highs, you know, from here at $207, which people were happy to own Palantir at $207, people were buying up there, right? But now they’re too afraid down here. That’s a 21% discount on the stock.”
Psychology of Contrarian Entry: Buyers enthusiastic at ATH $207, now fearful at 21% discount - classic opportunity for disciplined investors.
Previous Allocation (Friday): 25% cash - Very conservative positioning - Anticipated potential further market decline - Maintained 75% bullish exposure to benefit if wrong
Result: Market rallied, benefited from 75% allocation while having 25% cushion
Current Allocation: 15% cash - Deployed 10% of cash reserves into positions - More aligned with VIX-based allocation framework - VIX 20-25 range = 15% cash appropriate
Dynamic Rebalancing Plan: - VIX drops to 19: Increase cash to ~20% (take profits) - VIX sub-20: Move closer to 20% cash - Further rally: Continue trimming positions to raise cash
Philosophy: Match cash levels to fear/volatility indicators, not personal emotions or predictions.
Friday Hedge: - Used $8,000 from $60K December premiums to finance small hedge - Anticipation of potential short-term weakness
Outcome: - Removed hedge today for $1,500-1,800 loss - “Not a big deal. Spent a little money for protection. Didn’t quite work out.”
Learning: Market flipped bullish faster than expected, hedge unnecessary, but cost was acceptable portfolio insurance.
Bullish Bias Confirmed: - Technical indicators aligning (RSI, MACD, orderly buying) - Fed rate cut odds dramatically improved (0% → 80.93%) - VIX fear subsiding (clean drop pattern) - Bitcoin deleveraging complete, healthier market structure - Historical Thanksgiving week bullishness
Expected Near-Term Move: - QQQ target $514 potentially by midweek - Continued upward momentum likely - Bears disappointed, market showing resilience
Key Risk Management: - Maintain 15% cash for opportunities/protection - Dynamic rebalancing as VIX drops - Use volatility spikes (high VIX) to deploy capital - Take profits as fear subsides (low VIX)
“So, the market flipped bullish on one piece of data. I took off my small hedge and upped one of my newer stock positions up to 113K. I also bought 30K worth of LEAPS call options.”
“Fed Waller, he says a December cut rate cut is appropriate… Fed President Daly said that she supports a rate cut as well… And what that did was it changed the odds on the CME Fed Watch tool… December rate cut odds, they have closed today at 80.93%.”
“When we get rate cuts, businesses, consumers can borrow at cheaper rates which causes more spending and all of that liquidity ends up in assets like stocks and real estate.”
“This was very orderly buying. We gapped up. We finished 2.59% on the day and the buying just continued to creep higher. In fact, we’re going even higher after hours. So, this is a very, very bullish signal.”
“VIX dropped off a cliff today chilling at 20.49. Tomorrow if we head below 20 into the 19s maybe even the 18s somewhere in here in the next couple days then you know that’s just a bullish confirmation on top of what we already see in the price action.”
“I’m getting paid to dollar cost average. That is what I love to do on quality stocks like this that rebound after every crash, every bear market.”
“A PE ratio of 32 is actually pretty low in regards to an AI company because if you look at something like Nvidia… they have a 50 PE ratio or 51. And then you see some other AI stocks with a PE ratio of above 100 like Palantir up in the 300s right now as high as 700.”
“From all-time highs, you know, from here at $207, which people were happy to own Palantir at $207, people were buying up there, right? But now they’re too afraid down here. That’s a 21% discount on the stock. So, I said, ‘Hey, let’s grab them. Let’s play bullish.’”
“Palantir has notoriously always rebounded from touching these lower Bollinger bands.”
聯準會官員釋出 12 月降息適當訊號後，市場轉為看漲，降息機率從接近 0% 躍升至 80.93%。投資組合經理將 Seagate (STX) 倉位增加至 11.3 萬美元（透過現金擔保賣權），並買入 3 萬美元的 Palantir (PLTR) 長期買權選擇權（2027 年 1 月 150 美元執行價）。關鍵技術訊號：QQQ +2.59%、VIX 從恐慌水平下降（20.49）、RSI 和 MACD 轉為看漲。現金配置從 25% 降至 15% 以把握市場反彈。策略：STX 輪轉策略（235 美元賣權，4.37% ROI）、PLTR 長期買權目標在反彈至 180 美元時獲利 25-30%。兩檔股票均較歷史高點折扣 21%，AI 基本面強勁。
聯準會轉向： 市場經歷急劇看漲反轉，基於兩個關鍵的聯準會溝通：
對降息機率的影響： - CME 聯準會觀察工具發生劇烈變化 - 上週：降息機率降至接近 0%（低於 55% 門檻） - 目前：80.93% 的 12 月降息機率 - 意義：低於 55% = 本質上 0% 機率，目前 80%+ = 高信心度
經濟機制： 降息使企業和消費者能以更便宜的利率借貸 → 增加支出 → 流動性流入資產（股票、房地產）→ 市場升值。這個基本機制讓投資組合經理長期保持看漲。
感恩節週背景： - 歷史上為看漲週，儘管成交量低 - 目前低成交量 + 強勁 2.59% QQQ 漲幅 = 健康買入 - 有序跳空開高，持續買入至盤中及盤後
QQQ 技術設定：
關鍵水平： - 目前：跳空開高 2.59%，買入有序 - 第一阻力：507.50 美元（50 日移動平均線） - 第二阻力：日線圖上 514.00 美元 - 預期目標：週中可能達到 514 美元
看漲指標： - RSI 在日線圖上突破看漲 - MACD 準備突破看漲以確認動能 - 盤後延續顯示強度 - 成交量略薄但買入有序（非反轉模式）
看跌情境被拒絕： 如果 QQQ 僅上漲 1-1.2%，將表明反轉風險。但 2.59% 的跳空開高加上持續買入確認看漲動能。
VIX 分析 - 恐慌消退：
目前水平：20.49（從較高水平下降） - 20-25 區間：極度恐慌（目前區域） - 目標：20 以下，理想為未來幾天 18-19 區間
模式識別： - VIX 今日「跌落懸崖」- 典型恐慌消退模式 - 不是 VIX 維持 23-24 區間然後飆升的模式（先前的假反彈） - 乾淨下跌 = 真正的恐慌減少，非暫時停頓
基於 VIX 的現金配置策略： - VIX 20-25（極度恐慌）：15% 現金（目前配置） - VIX 20 以下：增加至約 20% 現金（獲利了結） - VIX 19：目標 20% 現金配置 - 先前配置：25% 現金（過於保守），現在 15% 以參與反彈
市場健康重置： 投資組合經理認為比特幣過度槓桿化導致近期市場修正：
8 萬美元支撐水平： - 關鍵技術支撐守住 - 使用槓桿比特幣 ETF 的過度槓桿機構和散戶交易者 - 許多倉位在此水平被追繳保證金和清算
結果：清洗後市場結構更健康，能夠實現更可持續的上升趨勢，沒有槓桿懸而未決。
投資論點： AI 數據儲存標的，估值吸引人且內部人活動強勁。AI 產業大規模儲存需求的關鍵基礎設施。
近期新聞： 「數據儲存製造商 Seagate 的股票在午後交易時段上漲，此前報導強調該公司強勁的基本面動能作為不斷增長的人工智慧產業的關鍵角色。投資者樂觀情緒受到 Seagate 能很好地滿足 AI 產業巨大儲存需求的想法推動。」
估值優勢： - 本益比：32（AI 產業中具吸引力） - 比較：NVDA 本益比 51，PLTR 本益比 300-700 - 定位：投資組合中 AI 曝險的「較安全標的」之一
內部人活動（看漲訊號）：
10 月模式：多位內部人行使股票選擇權並保留股份 - 行使以低執行價買入的權利 - 保留股份而非立即賣出 = 對上漲空間有信心
近期活動（11 月 12 日）： - CFO Romano：以 80 美元行使選擇權購入 52,000 股（400 萬美元價值） - 賣出 50% 倉位（正常高管流動性需求） - 保留 50% 以獲取進一步上漲 = 看漲確認
為何重要：內部人行使並持有（不僅僅賣出）展示對股價升值的信念。CFO 保留 200 萬美元以上的股票是重要的內部人信心訊號。
技術圖表： - 週五較歷史高點下跌 23% - 本交易時段反彈 6.69% - RSI 從未達到超賣區域（維持相對強度） - 乾淨圖表，下跌後持續反彈模式 - 輪轉策略理想：在下跌時賣出現金擔保賣權，收取權利金
選擇權策略 - 現金擔保賣權：
目前倉位：總共 5 份合約 - 12 月 26 日到期（32 天） - 執行價：215 美元和 235 美元賣權 - 總資本：11.3 萬美元風險 - 收取權利金：5,500 美元 - ROI：資本的 4.37%（若每月重複則年化約 50%+）
風險概況： - 願意以執行價被分配每份合約 100 股 - 235 美元執行價 = 較歷史高點折扣 21.5% - 分配水平代表強價值進場點
策略理由： 「我獲得報酬來進行定期定額投資。這就是我喜歡對這樣的優質股票做的事，它們在每次崩盤、每次熊市後都會反彈。」
進場紀律： - 僅選擇具有以下特徵的優質公司： - 長期上升趨勢歷史（至少 1.5 年） - 良好本益比（合理估值） - 強勁權利金（偏好每月 4-6% 範圍） - 修正後的反彈模式
輪轉策略應用： 1. 在下跌期間賣出現金擔保賣權（目前階段） 2. 若賣權到期價內則以折扣價被分配股份 3. 在成本基礎之上賣出備兌買權以獲取收入 4. 重複循環以持續獲得權利金收入
每月權利金目標：STX 持續可達到 4-6% 範圍
長期看漲論點： - 強勁且不斷增長的自由現金流 - 擴展戰略合作夥伴關係（近期 Nvidia 整合） - 企業 AI 市場領導地位
近期催化劑 - Nvidia 合作夥伴關係： 「Palantir 和 Nvidia 合作將企業數據轉化為動態決策智慧，使 AI 操作化。」
戰略意義： - 與 Nvidia 龐大客戶群整合（全球最大公司） - Palantir 從 Nvidia 的成功和客戶關係中受益 - 進入 Nvidia 企業生態系統的交叉銷售機會
內部人賣出分析 - Alex Karp（CEO）：
初步疑慮：Karp 在週五市場下跌期間賣出 9,500 萬美元股份（11 月 20 日）
背景揭示看漲訊號： - 2024 年 11 月（去年）：兩天內賣出 3 億美元以上（11 月 15 日） - 接下來幾週繼續賣出 1 億美元以上 - 去年總計：同期賣出 4 億美元以上
今年：僅賣出 9,500 萬美元 = 較去年顯著減少賣出
解讀： - CEO 賣出量年減約 75% - 定期股票出售是正常的高管薪酬 - 較低的賣出量 = 可能對近期前景更有信心 - 「他沒有在正確的時機賣出」- 在局部低點賣出，表明並非看跌
技術設定：
進場點： - 在約 162 美元購入長期買權 - 理想上想要 148 美元進場（週五錯過） - 接受非完美進場，因為： - RSI 在區間底部（超賣） - RSI 準備突破看漲 - MACD 轉向看漲以獲取動能 - 較歷史高點 207 美元折扣 21%
歷史模式 - 布林通道下軌反彈： Palantir「一向總是從觸及這些布林通道下軌反彈」 - 多個從布林通道觸及反彈的歷史例子 - 某些反彈花費較長時間，但模式始終實現 - 目前情況：觸及布林通道下軌 = 高機率反彈設定
長期買權選擇權倉位：
結構： - 6 份合約：2027 年 1 月 15 日 150 美元買權選擇權 - 總成本：29,784 美元（約 3 萬美元） - 時間價值：417 天至到期 - 目的：「保險計畫」，有充足時間證明正確
出場策略：
目標價格：180 美元（170 多美元至 180 美元區間） - 50 日移動平均線將作為阻力 - 從進場 162 美元 → 180 美元 = 股票上漲 11% - 預期選擇權收益：25-30%，因槓桿效應
時間軸：本週至幾週（有 417 天靈活運用）
風險管理哲學： 「給自己足夠的時間來證明正確。這只是一個保險計畫，以防萬一，嘿，我們進入熊市或發生一些瘋狂的事情，對吧？」
快速出場計畫：目標 7 天內獲利 10-20%，或 4 週內 20-40%（比完整長期買權時間軸允許的更短，以便戰術性出場）
現有倉位 - 備兌買權： - 800 股已持有（從先前賣權被分配） - 以 177.50 美元執行價賣出備兌買權（高於成本基礎） - 在等待升值時從股份產生收入
價值觀點： 「從歷史高點來看，你知道，從這裡的 207 美元，人們樂意以 207 美元持有 Palantir，人們在那裡買入，對吧？但現在他們在這裡太害怕了。這是股票的 21% 折扣。」
逆向進場心理：買家在歷史高點 207 美元時熱情高漲，現在以 21% 折扣時恐懼 - 紀律投資者的典型機會。
先前配置（週五）：25% 現金 - 非常保守的定位 - 預期可能進一步市場下跌 - 維持 75% 看漲曝險以在錯誤時受益
結果：市場反彈，從 75% 配置中受益，同時有 25% 緩衝
目前配置：15% 現金 - 將 10% 現金儲備部署到倉位 - 更符合基於 VIX 的配置框架 - VIX 20-25 區間 = 15% 現金適當
動態再平衡計畫： - VIX 降至 19：增加現金至約 20%（獲利了結） - VIX 20 以下：接近 20% 現金 - 進一步反彈：繼續修剪倉位以提高現金
哲學：將現金水平與恐慌/波動指標匹配，而非個人情緒或預測。
週五避險： - 從 6 萬美元 12 月權利金中使用 8,000 美元融資小型避險 - 預期可能短期疲軟
結果： - 今日以 1,500-1,800 美元虧損移除避險 - 「沒什麼大不了的。花了一點錢保護。結果不太理想。」
學習：市場比預期更快轉為看漲，避險不必要，但成本是可接受的投資組合保險。
看漲偏見確認： - 技術指標對齊（RSI、MACD、有序買入） - 聯準會降息機率大幅改善（0% → 80.93%） - VIX 恐慌消退（乾淨下跌模式） - 比特幣去槓桿化完成，市場結構更健康 - 歷史感恩節週看漲性
預期近期走勢： - QQQ 目標週中可能達到 514 美元 - 可能持續上升動能 - 空頭失望，市場顯示韌性
關鍵風險管理： - 維持 15% 現金以應對機會/保護 - 隨著 VIX 下降動態再平衡 - 利用波動飆升（高 VIX）部署資本 - 隨著恐慌消退（低 VIX）獲利了結
「所以，市場基於一條數據轉為看漲。我移除了小型避險並將我較新的股票倉位之一增加到 11.3 萬美元。我還買入了 3 萬美元的長期買權選擇權。」
「聯準會 Waller，他說 12 月降息是適當的……聯準會主席 Daly 說她也支持降息……這改變了 CME 聯準會觀察工具上的機率……12 月降息機率，今天收在 80.93%。」
「當我們獲得降息時，企業、消費者可以以更便宜的利率借貸，這導致更多支出，所有這些流動性最終進入股票和房地產等資產。」
「這是非常有序的買入。我們跳空開高。我們收盤上漲 2.59%，買入持續走高。事實上，我們盤後漲得更高。所以，這是一個非常、非常看漲的訊號。」
「VIX 今天跌落懸崖，停留在 20.49。明天如果我們跌破 20 進入 19 區間，甚至未來幾天可能進入 18 區間，那你知道這只是在我們已經在價格行為中看到的基礎上的看漲確認。」
「我獲得報酬來進行定期定額投資。這就是我喜歡對這樣的優質股票做的事，它們在每次崩盤、每次熊市後都會反彈。」
「本益比 32 對於 AI 公司來說實際上相當低，因為如果你看看像 Nvidia 這樣的東西……他們有 50 或 51 的本益比。然後你看到其他一些 AI 股票的本益比超過 100，像 Palantir 現在在 300 多，高達 700。對吧？」
「從歷史高點來看，你知道，從這裡的 207 美元，人們樂意以 207 美元持有 Palantir，人們在那裡買入，對吧？但現在他們在這裡太害怕了。這是股票的 21% 折扣。所以，我說，『嘿，讓我們買下它們。讓我們看漲。』」
「Palantir 一向總是從觸及這些布林通道下軌反彈。」
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