Source: YouTube URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFbePq4ZzvY Date: 2025-10-11 Duration: 21:28
Ryan analyzes the recent market correction triggered by Trump’s China tariff threats (QQQ down 3.5%, after-hours down another 1%), predicting a 7-10% correction with potential bottom at 552-570 levels. He deploys $93K into American Express (AXP) cash-secured puts and outlines LEAPS opportunities on HOOD, PLTR, and SOFI, viewing this volatility spike (VIX 20-25) as a buying opportunity before a potential Christmas rally, supported by multiple rate cuts coming in October, December, and March 2026.
Immediate Catalyst The market correction was triggered by President Trump’s announcement of massive tariff increases on China related to rare earths export controls. Trump also threatened to cancel his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This news came as the VIX (volatility index) had been creeping upward while the market made new all-time highs—a classic divergence pattern similar to the one seen before the tariff crash.
Technical Breakdown QQQ closed down 3.5% and fell another 1% after-hours to 583. The index breached both the lower Bollinger band and the 50-day moving average at 584, key technical support levels. Ryan expects Monday to be another red day with potential flush-out extending into Tuesday/Wednesday before any recovery begins. Only 36% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving average, indicating oversold conditions building.
Correction Projection Ryan forecasts two scenarios: 1. Base case (7% correction): QQQ drops to 570-580 range, setting up for Christmas rally 2. Extended correction (10%): Maximum downside to 552 level for a “healthy real correction”
He notes this is the correction the market needed, as continuing to grind higher with only 2.5% pullbacks would have led to a more severe 10-15% correction later.
Rate Cut Pipeline Using CME FedWatch Tool data: - October 2025: 97% probability (essentially confirmed) - December 2025: 95% probability (up from 70%) - March 2026: 95% probability (up from 80%) - Mid-summer 2026: Fourth rate cut expected - Late 2026/Early 2027: Potential fifth rate cut
This aggressive easing cycle provides strong support for risk assets, as lower rates enable cheaper borrowing for businesses and consumers, driving liquidity into stocks.
Inflation Indicators Improving - 10-year Treasury yields “fell off a cliff” as investors fled to safety - Oil prices also dropped significantly - Both trends support lower inflation, potentially below 2% target - More aggressive rate cuts likely in 2026 if inflation remains subdued
Positive Setup Despite Volatility While near-term volatility is painful, Ryan views the combination of falling yields, declining oil prices, oversold technical conditions, and multiple rate cuts as creating an ideal setup for a “nice Christmas rally.”
Trade Structure - Position size: $93,000 in cash-secured puts - Strike: $310 - Expiration: 1 week out - Premium collected: $485 per contract - Potential ROI: 1.8% in one week - Shares if assigned: 300 shares at $310 (3 contracts)
Rationale for AXP Ryan views American Express as a defensive blue-chip position during market volatility: - Relative strength: Only down 2.5% vs QQQ down 3.4% - Valuation: PE ratio of 22 (reasonable for quality company) - Business quality: Recurring revenue model, strong cash position - Personal conviction: Ryan personally uses American Express products - Technical setup: Near 311 support from past trend line, RSI approaching oversold (levels not seen since tariff crash) - Earnings catalyst: Earnings next week with expected move of ±$17
Expected Move Analysis With expected move of ±$17 and earnings, stock could potentially fall to $300. If assigned at $310, Ryan views it as acceptable entry for riding recovery. He plans to add another contract next week due to high confidence at these historically low levels.
1. Robinhood (HOOD)
Current status: Closed at $138, after-hours $132 Position: Ryan’s favorite stock in portfolio, but feels overextended
LEAPS Entry Strategy: - Entry zone: $125-130 (50-day moving average at $118 represents absolute bottom) - Contract: Jan 15, 2027 expiration - Delta: 70-delta calls - Current 70-delta: $125 strike costing ~$4,900 (vs $13,400 to buy 100 shares) - Monday likely 70-delta: $115 strike (stock expected lower)
Safer Alternative - Cash-Secured Puts: - Expiration: November 7 (earnings play) - Strike: $120 - Potential ROI: 6% (currently showing 4%, but will increase with volatility) - Existing position: $165K in cash-secured puts at $127 level
Technical Analysis: - Stock historically bounces off mid-Bollinger band - Lower Bollinger band rarely touched but currently very extended - Looking for oversold RSI and bearish MACD crossover as entry signals - Expects “rubber band snapback trade” after correction
2. Palantir (PLTR)
Current price: $171 Position: $99,000 in existing cash-secured puts
Why PLTR Stands Out: - Valuation: PE ratio above 500 (extremely high) - Beta: 2.5-2.2 (should drop 8-10% when QQQ drops 4%) - Actual performance: Only down 5.4% (showing remarkable resilience) - Reasoning: Strong cash position, not capital-intensive business model, recurring revenue
LEAPS Entry Strategy: - Entry: Lower Bollinger band at $168 - Contract: Jan 15, 2027 expiration - Delta: 70-delta calls - Monday likely strike: $145 (70-delta)
Cash-Secured Put Alternative: - Expiration: November 7 (earnings) - Strike: $160s - Potential ROI: 6% (currently showing 4.9%) - Premium: $700-800 per contract - Assignment view: “Totally fine” owning shares at $160
Investment Thesis: Ryan emphasizes PLTR’s resilience despite high valuation. The fact it’s holding up better than its beta suggests indicates strong institutional support and confidence in business fundamentals. The recurring revenue model and low capital requirements make it attractive even at elevated valuations.
3. SoFi (SOFI)
Current price: $25.95 after-hours Position: Biggest portfolio position at $186,000 in cash-secured puts
LEAPS Entry Strategy: - Entry zone: $24-25.50 (lower Bollinger band) - Contract: Jan 15, 2027 expiration - Delta: 70-delta calls - Likely strikes: $22 or $20 - Cost: ~$1,000 per contract (vs $2,500 to buy 100 shares)
Cash-Secured Put Strategy: - Expiration: October 31 (earnings) - Delta: 20-25 delta - Strikes: $20 to $21.50 (likely $20.50 or $20 for 20-delta) - Potential ROI: 3.4-4.5% in 21 days - Current 20-delta: $22 strike
Why SoFi: - “Silent sleeper” - consistently generates cash-secured put income - Solid company in online banking sector - “Boring sector” provides stability - Strong upward trending chart - Historical pattern: Clients bought previous lower Bollinger band touch, rode up, exited, now can re-enter for “W” pattern trade
Ryan views SOFI as a reliable income generator that doesn’t require constant monitoring, making it ideal for his options-selling strategy during volatile periods.
Current Allocation: - Total portfolio: $1.3 million - Cash available: $211,000 (16%) - Portfolio down 2.6% (vs QQQ down 3.5%) - Outperformance due to options income strategy
VIX-Based Cash Allocation System: - VIX 10-15%: Normal operations - VIX 20-25: Deploy to 10-15% cash (current level - ready to buy) - VIX >25: Deploy to ~5% cash (nearly all-in)
Monday Action Plan: Ryan expects VIX to spike to 24-28 range on Monday flush-out, which will be his primary buying signal. He views fear as opportunity, particularly for options sellers who can: - Collect maximum premiums during high volatility - Stay safer by selling puts far from stock price - Get assigned on quality stocks at attractive prices
Options Income Strategy: His portfolio outperformance (down 2.6% vs QQQ down 3.5%) demonstrates the protective power of his strategy. By closing positions for $1,796 profit today while market dropped, he freed up cash while maintaining income generation. This approach thrives during volatility when premiums expand.
Short-term (Next Week): - Monday/Tuesday likely continuation of selloff - VIX spike to 24-28 creates buying opportunity - Potential recovery Wednesday/Thursday - Low probability: Trump weekend announcement triggers rally
Medium-term (Holiday Season): Ryan expects this correction sets up a “nice Christmas rally” supported by: - Multiple rate cuts confirmed (October, December, March) - Inflation declining (falling yields, oil prices) - Oversold technical conditions - Institutional buying opportunity (retail selling provides liquidity)
Bull Case Logic: “If we do head a lot lower on QQQ… that would give institutions another reason to say, ‘Hey, retail has been pushing up this whole trend. We’ve been sitting on the sidelines. This is our time to buy and get in before retail because retail’s all selling and taking profits.’”
2026 Outlook: Expects 2026 to be “just kind of an uptrend from there” following the Christmas rally, supported by continued rate cuts and economic expansion.
Contrarian Philosophy: “For a lot of people, it’s going to be very scary, and people are going to be selling. But for us as contrarians in the market, we’re going to look at this as opportunity.”
Conservative Implementation: - LEAPS limited to 10% of portfolio maximum - Prefers earnings plays and cash-secured puts for core strategy - Maintains 16% cash for current volatility level - Uses technical levels (Bollinger bands, moving averages) for entry discipline
Options Advantages During Volatility: - Collect maximum premiums when fear is highest - Maintain safety by selling far out-of-the-money strikes - Generate income whether assigned or not - Capital efficiency through leverage (LEAPS control shares for fraction of cost)
“QQQ was down three and a half percent today and after hours it went down another 1%. Where could this market be headed? Are we headed for another big crash like we saw back in March and April or could this be quicker than expected?”
“Rate cuts are on the way. This is exactly what I saw during the tariffs crash. I just said, ‘Hey, this is going to this might be a big crash, but with rate cuts on the way, eventually buyers are going to be stepping in because more liquidity, lower rates, businesses can borrow at cheaper rates, consumers can borrow at cheaper rates and spend more money. That money has to go somewhere and it chases assets. One of them being stocks.’”
“This is the correction we’ve all been waiting for. Now, you know, do we go negative 7% or do we go even further? Odds are we’re probably going to land somewhere between 570 and 580.”
“For a lot of people, it’s going to be very scary, and people are going to be selling. But for us as contrarians in the market, we’re going to look at this as opportunity. And when you’re selling options, this is the best time to collect the most premiums, stay safe, get far away from the stock, and potentially get assigned on good stock.”
“This is when you have to take advantage. If you can’t get scared, you have to, if you follow the VIX cash allocation, then, you know, having cash for these opportunities is great because this is where the real money is made.”
“I think this is one of those crashes where, hey, if we do head a lot lower on QQQ… that would give institutions another reason to say, ‘Hey, retail has been pushing up this whole trend. We’ve been sitting on the sidelines. This is our time to buy and get in before retail because retail’s all selling and taking profits.’”
Ryan 分析了由川普對中國關稅威脅引發的近期市場修正（QQQ 下跌 3.5%，盤後再跌 1%），預測將出現 7-10% 的修正，潛在底部位於 552-570 區間。他投入 93,000 美元到美國運通（AXP）的現金擔保賣權，並概述了 HOOD、PLTR 和 SOFI 的 LEAPS 機會，將此次波動率飆升（VIX 20-25）視為買進機會，預期在 10 月、12 月和 2026 年 3 月即將到來的多次降息支持下，可能出現聖誕節行情。
直接催化劑 市場修正由川普總統宣布針對中國稀土出口管制大幅提高關稅引發。川普還威脅取消與中國國家主席習近平即將舉行的會面。這一消息出現之際，VIX（波動率指數）在市場創下歷史新高時一直在上升——這是一種典型的背離模式，類似於關稅崩盤前看到的模式。
技術性崩盤 QQQ 收盤下跌 3.5%，盤後再跌 1% 至 583。該指數突破了下布林帶和 584 的 50 日移動平均線，這些都是關鍵技術支撐位。Ryan 預計週一將是另一個紅盤日，可能會出現沖洗，延伸到週二/週三才開始任何反彈。只有 36% 的股票仍高於其 50 日移動平均線，顯示超賣狀況正在形成。
修正預測 Ryan 預測兩種情境： 1. 基本情境（7% 修正）：QQQ 跌至 570-580 區間，為聖誕節行情做準備 2. 延伸修正（10%）：最大下跌至 552 水平，形成「健康的真實修正」
他指出這是市場需要的修正，因為如果繼續以僅 2.5% 的回檔向上攀升，將導致更嚴重的 10-15% 修正。
降息管線 使用 CME FedWatch 工具數據： - 2025 年 10 月：97% 機率（基本確認） - 2025 年 12 月：95% 機率（從 70% 上升） - 2026 年 3 月：95% 機率（從 80% 上升） - 2026 年仲夏：預期第四次降息 - 2026 年底/2027 年初：可能第五次降息
這個激進的寬鬆週期為風險資產提供強力支撐，因為較低利率使企業和消費者能以更便宜的成本借貸，推動流動性進入股市。
通膨指標改善 - 10 年期國債收益率「暴跌」，投資者逃向避險資產 - 油價也大幅下跌 - 兩種趨勢都支持較低通膨，可能低於 2% 目標 - 如果通膨保持溫和，2026 年可能出現更激進的降息
儘管波動但設置有利 雖然近期波動令人痛苦，Ryan 認為下降的收益率、下跌的油價、超賣的技術狀況和多次降息的組合，為「美好的聖誕節行情」創造了理想的設置。
交易結構 - 倉位規模：93,000 美元現金擔保賣權 - 執行價：310 美元 - 到期日：1 週後 - 收取權利金：每合約 485 美元 - 潛在投資回報率：1 週 1.8% - 若被指派股數：310 美元 300 股（3 個合約）
AXP 理由 Ryan 將美國運通視為市場波動期間的防禦性藍籌股倉位： - 相對強勢：僅下跌 2.5% 對比 QQQ 下跌 3.4% - 估值：本益比 22（優質公司的合理水平） - 業務質量：經常性收入模式，強勁現金部位 - 個人信念：Ryan 個人使用美國運通產品 - 技術設置：接近過去趨勢線的 311 支撐，RSI 接近超賣（自關稅崩盤以來未見水平） - 財報催化劑：下週財報，預期波動 ±17 美元
預期波動分析 預期波動 ±17 美元加上財報，股票可能跌至 300 美元。如果在 310 美元被指派，Ryan 認為這是可接受的進場點以搭乘反彈。他計劃下週再增加一個合約，因為對這些歷史低點有很高的信心。
1. Robinhood (HOOD)
當前狀況：收盤 138 美元，盤後 132 美元 持倉：Ryan 投資組合中最喜歡的股票，但感覺過度延伸
LEAPS 進場策略： - 進場區間：125-130 美元（50 日移動平均線在 118 美元代表絕對底部） - 合約：2027 年 1 月 15 日到期 - Delta：70-delta 買權 - 當前 70-delta：125 美元執行價成本約 4,900 美元（對比 13,400 美元買 100 股） - 週一可能 70-delta：115 美元執行價（股票預期更低）
更安全的替代方案 - 現金擔保賣權： - 到期日：11 月 7 日（財報交易） - 執行價：120 美元 - 潛在投資回報率：6%（目前顯示 4%，但會隨波動率增加） - 現有持倉：165,000 美元現金擔保賣權在 127 美元水平
技術分析： - 股票歷史上會從中布林帶反彈 - 下布林帶很少觸及，但目前非常延伸 - 尋找超賣 RSI 和看跌 MACD 交叉作為進場信號 - 預期修正後出現「橡皮筋回彈交易」
2. Palantir (PLTR)
當前價格：171 美元 持倉：99,000 美元現有現金擔保賣權
PLTR 脫穎而出的原因： - 估值：本益比高於 500（極高） - Beta 值：2.5-2.2（當 QQQ 下跌 4% 時應下跌 8-10%） - 實際表現：僅下跌 5.4%（展現顯著韌性） - 理由：強勁現金部位，非資本密集型商業模式，經常性收入
LEAPS 進場策略： - 進場：下布林帶在 168 美元 - 合約：2027 年 1 月 15 日到期 - Delta：70-delta 買權 - 週一可能執行價：145 美元（70-delta）
現金擔保賣權替代方案： - 到期日：11 月 7 日（財報） - 執行價：160 美元區間 - 潛在投資回報率：6%（目前顯示 4.9%） - 權利金：每合約 700-800 美元 - 被指派觀點：「完全可以」在 160 美元持有股票
投資論點： Ryan 強調 PLTR 儘管估值高但展現韌性。事實上它的表現優於其 beta 值所示，顯示強勁的機構支持和對業務基本面的信心。經常性收入模式和低資本要求使其即使在高估值下也具吸引力。
3. SoFi (SOFI)
當前價格：盤後 25.95 美元 持倉：投資組合最大持倉，186,000 美元現金擔保賣權
LEAPS 進場策略： - 進場區間：24-25.50 美元（下布林帶） - 合約：2027 年 1 月 15 日到期 - Delta：70-delta 買權 - 可能執行價：22 或 20 美元 - 成本：每合約約 1,000 美元（對比 2,500 美元買 100 股）
現金擔保賣權策略： - 到期日：10 月 31 日（財報） - Delta：20-25 delta - 執行價：20 至 21.50 美元（可能 20.50 或 20 美元為 20-delta） - 潛在投資回報率：21 天 3.4-4.5% - 當前 20-delta：22 美元執行價
為何選擇 SoFi： - 「沉默的沉睡者」- 持續產生現金擔保賣權收入 - 線上銀行業務的可靠公司 - 「無聊產業」提供穩定性 - 強勁的上升趨勢圖表 - 歷史模式：客戶在之前的下布林帶觸及買入，上漲後退出，現在可以再次進場形成「W」模式交易
Ryan 將 SOFI 視為可靠的收入產生器，不需要持續監控，使其成為波動期間選擇權賣出策略的理想選擇。
當前配置： - 總投資組合：130 萬美元 - 可用現金：211,000 美元（16%） - 投資組合下跌 2.6%（對比 QQQ 下跌 3.5%） - 因選擇權收益策略而跑贏
基於 VIX 的現金配置系統： - VIX 10-15%：正常運作 - VIX 20-25：部署至 10-15% 現金（目前水平 - 準備買入） - VIX >25：部署至約 5% 現金（幾乎全押）
週一行動計劃： Ryan 預計 VIX 在週一沖洗時會飆升至 24-28 區間，這將是他的主要買入信號。他將恐懼視為機會，特別是對選擇權賣家而言，他們可以： - 在高波動期間收取最大權利金 - 通過賣出遠離股價的賣權保持更安全 - 以有吸引力的價格被指派優質股票
選擇權收益策略： 他的投資組合超額表現（下跌 2.6% 對比 QQQ 下跌 3.5%）展示了其策略的保護力量。通過在市場下跌時平倉獲利 1,796 美元，他釋放了現金同時維持收入產生。這種方法在權利金擴大的波動期間蓬勃發展。
短期（下週）： - 週一/週二可能繼續拋售 - VIX 飆升至 24-28 創造買入機會 - 週三/週四可能反彈 - 低機率：川普週末宣布引發反彈
中期（假日季節）： Ryan 預計此次修正為「美好的聖誕節行情」做準備，支撐因素包括： - 多次降息確認（10 月、12 月、3 月） - 通膨下降（收益率下降、油價下跌） - 超賣技術狀況 - 機構買入機會（散戶拋售提供流動性）
多頭情境邏輯： 「如果我們在 QQQ 上確實下跌更多……那將給機構另一個理由說，『嘿，散戶一直在推動整個趨勢。我們一直在場外觀望。現在是我們在散戶拋售和獲利了結之前買入的時候。』」
2026 年展望： 預計 2026 年在聖誕節行情之後將「只是一種上升趨勢」，由持續降息和經濟擴張支撐。
逆向投資哲學： 「對很多人來說，這將非常可怕，人們會拋售。但對我們這些市場逆向投資者來說，我們將把這視為機會。」
保守實施： - LEAPS 限制在投資組合最多 10% - 核心策略偏好財報交易和現金擔保賣權 - 為當前波動率水平維持 16% 現金 - 使用技術水平（布林帶、移動平均線）進行進場紀律
波動期間選擇權優勢： - 在恐懼最高時收取最大權利金 - 通過賣出深度價外執行價維持安全 - 無論是否被指派都產生收入 - 通過槓桿實現資本效率（LEAPS 以一小部分成本控制股票）
「QQQ 今天下跌了 3.5%，盤後又下跌了 1%。這個市場會走向何方？我們是否會像 3 月和 4 月那樣迎來另一次大崩盤，還是會比預期更快？」
「降息正在路上。這正是我在關稅崩盤期間看到的。我只是說，『嘿，這可能會是一次大崩盤，但隨著降息的到來，買家最終會介入，因為更多流動性、更低利率、企業可以以更便宜的利率借款、消費者可以以更便宜的利率借款並花更多錢。這些錢必須去某個地方，它會追逐資產。其中之一就是股票。』」
「這是我們一直在等待的修正。現在，你知道，我們會跌 7% 還是會更多？機率上我們可能會落在 570 到 580 之間的某個地方。」
「對很多人來說，這將非常可怕，人們會拋售。但對我們這些市場逆向投資者來說，我們將把這視為機會。當你賣選擇權時，這是最好的時機，可以收取最多權利金，保持安全，遠離股票，並可能被指派優質股票。」
「這是你必須抓住的時候。如果你不能感到害怕，你必須，如果你遵循 VIX 現金配置，那麼，你知道，為這些機會準備現金是很好的，因為這是真正賺錢的地方。」
「我認為這是那種崩盤之一，嘿，如果我們在 QQQ 上確實下跌更多……那將給機構另一個理由說，『嘿，散戶一直在推動整個趨勢。我們一直在場外觀望。現在是我們在散戶拋售和獲利了結之前買入的時候。』」
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