Source: YouTube URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4E_OU0kPXc Date: 2025-10-09 Duration: 23:41
Despite media warnings and all-time high Google searches for “AI bubble burst,” current AI stocks are trading at valuations 5x lower than the 2000 dot-com bubble peak. The MAG 7 average PE ratio is 27x versus 125x during the dot-com era. Three recommended AI plays: Nvidia (low risk, 52 PE), Celestica/CLS (medium risk, 53 PE), and Palantir (high risk, 596 PE) using the wheel strategy with cash-secured puts targeting 2-5% monthly premiums.
The creator systematically dismantles AI bubble fears through valuation comparisons:
Dot-Com Bubble (1999-2000) Valuations: - Cisco Systems: 148 PE ratio (2nd largest company) - AOL: 217 PE - Oracle: 152 PE - Yahoo: 623 PE - Nortel Networks: 105 PE - Top 18 tech stocks average: 125 PE - Stocks with PE >100: Trading at 208 PE average
Current AI Era (2025) Valuations: - Apple: 29 PE - Nvidia: 52 PE (not 152 PE like Cisco) - Microsoft: 29 PE - Amazon: 31 PE - MAG 7 average: 27 PE
Conclusion: Current AI stocks trade at less than 1/5th the valuations of dot-com bubble stocks. At 27x PE vs. 125x PE, there’s substantial room for growth before reaching bubble territory.
The Fed is signaling continued monetary easing: - October 2025: High probability of 25bp rate cut - December/January: Another 25bp cut likely - 2025-2026 Outlook: 2-3 additional cuts projected
Impact on AI Companies: - Lower borrowing costs for R&D expansion - Cheaper capital for infrastructure buildout - Increased consumer spending power - Historical precedent: markets rally during rate cut cycles
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) Setup: - Current level: New all-time highs - Upside target: $620 (short-term) - Key support: $603 (must hold) - Dip buying zones: $595 (mid Bollinger Band), $584 (lower Bollinger Band) - RSI: Overbought territory - MACD: Bullish momentum intact
VIX Fear Gauge: - Current: 16 (slight fear uptick) - Trend: Minor uptrend from recent lows - Expectation: Potential spike to 20, then back to 14-15 range
Why It’s the Safest AI Play: 1. Valuation: 52 PE ratio (historically low for NVDA, previously 70-100 PE) 2. Fundamentals: 56% profit margins, strong free cash flow 3. Catalyst: CEO Jensen Huang confirms AI compute demand “substantially up” 4. Supply Constraint: Can’t meet demand (bullish pricing power)
Options Strategy - The Wheel: - Current position: $119,000 in cash-secured puts at 170 strike (59% premium collected) - Recommended new trade: November 7th expiration (30 days) - Conservative: 175 strike = $345 premium (2% ROI) - Aggressive: 180 strike = $485 premium (2.7% ROI) - Assignment scenario: Comfortable owning at $180 (5% discount from ATH), can sell covered calls if assigned
Price Target: $200 by end of year 2025
Risk Assessment: Low - established market leader with pricing power and unmet demand
What They Do: - AI server hardware manufacturer - High-bandwidth networking switches for AI accelerators - Advanced cooling systems for data centers - Storage controllers and supply chain services - Military and industrial sector components
Catalysts: 1. Market Recognition: Added to TSX 30 index 2. AI Infrastructure Boom: Direct beneficiary of data center buildout 3. Earnings: October 31st, 2025
Valuation: 53 PE ratio
Options Strategy: - Current position: $132,000 in cash-secured puts at 220, 215, 210, 225 strikes (collecting ~$6,000 for October) - Recommended earnings play: October 31st expiration - Strike: $220 puts (25 delta = 25% probability of assignment) - Premium: $1,000 collected - ROI: 4.79% potential return - Discount: 15% below all-time highs, right at 50-day moving average
Earnings Expected Move: +/- $47 (range: $222 to $297)
Risk Assessment: Medium - higher volatility around earnings, but strong AI infrastructure tailwinds
Why the Richest Valuation (596 PE) Makes Sense: 1. Early Growth Stage: Not fully expanded to commercial markets 2. High Margins: 32% profit margins, 57% free cash flow margin 3. Strong Balance Sheet: Cash covers debt 4-5x over 4. Sticky Revenue: Software with high switching costs
Q2 2025 Highlights: - 157 deals ≥ $1M - 66 deals ≥ $5M - 42 deals ≥ $10M - $569M adjusted free cash flow - Double-digit growth quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year
Recent Catalyst: Won Mednet healthcare AI partnership ($868B TAM by 2030)
Chart Pattern: Consolidating between $170-$190, building base (not overbought)
Options Strategy: - Current position: $99,000 in cash-secured puts at 165 strike - Recommended earnings play: November 7th expiration (30 days before Nov 10th earnings) - Strike: $170 puts (31 delta) - Premium: $770 collected - ROI: 4.79% potential return - Discount: 12% below previous ATH
Earnings Expected Move: +/- $30 (range: $153 to $213)
Historical Pattern: Every earnings has resulted in substantial upside move
Price Target: $200 by end of year 2025
Risk Assessment: High - extreme PE ratio, but justified by growth trajectory and TAM expansion
Ryan’s VIX-based cash allocation system: - VIX 15-20: Hold 20-25% cash (current level) - VIX 20-25: Increase to 30-40% cash - VIX 25-30: 50-70% cash - VIX 30+: 0% cash (fully invested during panic)
Philosophy: “Cash is the best hedge” - preserve dry powder for black swan events or policy-driven corrections
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): - Potential grind higher to QQQ $620 - Possible healthy pullback to $595-$603 zone - Best dip-buying opportunity: $584-$589 area (unlikely given current momentum)
Medium-term (Q4 2025): - Christmas rally likely - AI sector positioned for outperformance - Rate cuts providing tailwind - All three positions could hit $200 targets
Risk Factors: - Presidential policy announcements (Trump-related volatility) - Unexpected Fed pivot - Earnings misses (especially CLS and PLTR around Oct 31 and Nov 10)
“Numbers don’t lie, and that’s the best part and why I look at the data. I just look at PE ratios, price to earnings ratios, the multiples that people were willing to pay for these companies back in the dot-com bubble versus the AI bubble now.”
“Nvidia shares rise after CEO Jensen Huang says AI computing demand is up substantially. The demand for the compute is so high that effectively Nvidia can’t even supply the demand of chips that are going to be required for this demand.”
“If Apple was trading at 100 times earnings, I would definitely be concerned there. If Nvidia was trading at 200 times earnings, I would definitely be concerned, but it’s not.”
“Cash is the best hedge. I like to have around 20 to 25% cash at these levels. And as the VIX goes higher, I start allocating more cash until I have zero cash when the VIX is above 30.”
“This company [Palantir] operates off of high margins and low overhead. Once it’s established inside a business, it’s very hard for that business to say, ‘Hey, I don’t want to use this software anymore. I want to switch softwares.’”
儘管媒體警告和Google搜尋「AI泡沫破裂」創歷史新高，當前AI股票估值比2000年網路泡沫高峰期低5倍。MAG 7平均本益比27倍對比網路時代的125倍。推薦三檔AI股票：Nvidia（低風險，52倍本益比）、Celestica/CLS（中風險，53倍本益比）和Palantir（高風險，596倍本益比），採用輪轉策略的現金擔保賣權，目標每月2-5%權利金收益。
創作者通過估值比較系統性地破除AI泡沫恐懼：
網路泡沫時期（1999-2000）估值： - 思科系統：148倍本益比（第二大公司） - AOL：217倍本益比 - 甲骨文：152倍本益比 - 雅虎：623倍本益比 - 北電網路：105倍本益比 - 前18大科技股平均：125倍本益比 - 本益比>100的股票：平均208倍本益比
當前AI時代（2025）估值： - 蘋果：29倍本益比 - Nvidia：52倍本益比（而非思科的152倍） - 微軟：29倍本益比 - 亞馬遜：31倍本益比 - MAG 7平均：27倍本益比
結論：當前AI股票估值不到網路泡沫時期的1/5。在27倍對比125倍本益比的情況下，在達到泡沫水平之前仍有實質成長空間。
聯準會發出持續寬鬆貨幣政策信號： - 2025年10月：25個基點降息機率高 - 12月/1月：可能再降息25個基點 - 2025-2026展望：預計再降息2-3次
對AI公司的影響： - 研發擴張的借貸成本降低 - 基礎設施建設的資本成本更便宜 - 消費者購買力增加 - 歷史先例：降息週期中市場通常上漲
QQQ（那斯達克100）設定： - 當前水平：創歷史新高 - 上行目標：620美元（短期） - 關鍵支撐：603美元（必須守住） - 逢低買入區域：595美元（布林通道中軌）、584美元（布林通道下軌） - RSI：超買區域 - MACD：看漲動能完整
VIX恐慌指標： - 當前：16（恐慌略微上升） - 趨勢：從近期低點小幅上升 - 預期：可能飆升至20，然後回落至14-15區間
為何是最安全的AI投資： 1. 估值：52倍本益比（NVDA歷史低點，過去為70-100倍本益比） 2. 基本面：56%利潤率，強勁自由現金流 3. 催化劑：執行長黃仁勳確認AI運算需求「大幅上升」 4. 供應限制：無法滿足需求（看漲定價權）
選擇權策略 - 輪轉策略： - 當前部位：119,000美元現金擔保賣權，執行價170（已收取59%權利金） - 建議新交易：11月7日到期（30天） - 保守：175執行價 = 345美元權利金（2%投資報酬率） - 積極：180執行價 = 485美元權利金（2.7%投資報酬率） - 履約情境：樂於以180美元持有（距歷史高點5%折扣），若被履約可賣出備兌買權
目標價：2025年底200美元
風險評估：低 - 市場龍頭地位，具定價權和未滿足需求
業務範圍： - AI伺服器硬體製造商 - AI加速器的高頻寬網路交換機 - 資料中心的先進冷卻系統 - 儲存控制器和供應鏈服務 - 軍事和工業部門組件
催化劑： 1. 市場認可：加入TSX 30指數 2. AI基礎設施熱潮：資料中心建設的直接受益者 3. 財報：2025年10月31日
估值：53倍本益比
選擇權策略： - 當前部位：132,000美元現金擔保賣權，執行價220、215、210、225（10月收取約6,000美元） - 建議財報交易：10月31日到期 - 執行價：220美元賣權（25 delta = 25%履約機率） - 權利金：收取1,000美元 - 投資報酬率：4.79%潛在回報 - 折扣：距歷史高點15%，剛好在50日移動平均線
財報預期波動：+/- 47美元（區間：222至297美元）
風險評估：中 - 財報期間波動較大，但AI基礎設施順風強勁
為何最高估值（596倍本益比）合理： 1. 早期成長階段：尚未完全擴張至商業市場 2. 高利潤率：32%利潤率，57%自由現金流利潤率 3. 強勁資產負債表：現金覆蓋債務4-5倍 4. 黏性收入：軟體轉換成本高
2025年第二季亮點： - 157筆交易 ≥ 100萬美元 - 66筆交易 ≥ 500萬美元 - 42筆交易 ≥ 1,000萬美元 - 5.69億美元調整後自由現金流 - 季度、年度雙位數成長
近期催化劑：贏得Mednet醫療AI合作夥伴關係（2030年8,680億美元總可尋址市場）
圖表形態：在170-190美元之間盤整，建立基礎（未超買）
選擇權策略： - 當前部位：99,000美元現金擔保賣權，執行價165 - 建議財報交易：11月7日到期（11月10日財報前30天） - 執行價：170美元賣權（31 delta） - 權利金：收取770美元 - 投資報酬率：4.79%潛在回報 - 折扣：距前高點12%
財報預期波動：+/- 30美元（區間：153至213美元）
歷史形態：每次財報都導致大幅上漲
目標價：2025年底200美元
風險評估：高 - 極端本益比，但因成長軌跡和總可尋址市場擴張而合理
Ryan基於VIX的現金配置系統： - VIX 15-20：持有20-25%現金（當前水平） - VIX 20-25：增加至30-40%現金 - VIX 25-30：50-70%現金 - VIX 30+：0%現金（恐慌時滿倉投資）
理念：「現金是最好的對沖」- 保留火藥以應對黑天鵝事件或政策驅動的修正
短期（未來1-2週）： - 可能繼續上漲至QQQ 620美元 - 可能健康回調至595-603美元區間 - 最佳逢低買入機會：584-589美元區域（鑒於當前動能不太可能）
中期（2025年第四季）： - 聖誕節行情可能性高 - AI產業表現優於大盤 - 降息提供順風 - 三個部位都可能達到200美元目標
風險因素： - 總統政策公告（川普相關波動） - 聯準會意外轉向 - 財報不如預期（特別是10月31日CLS和11月10日PLTR）
“數據不會說謊，這是最好的部分，也是我為何看數據的原因。我只看本益比，價格與收益比率，人們願意為這些公司在網路泡沫時期支付的倍數，對比現在AI泡沫的倍數。”
“Nvidia執行長黃仁勳表示AI運算需求大幅上升後，Nvidia股價上漲。運算需求如此之高，以致於Nvidia實際上無法供應滿足這種需求所需的晶片數量。”
“如果蘋果以100倍收益交易，我肯定會擔心。如果Nvidia以200倍收益交易，我肯定會擔心，但事實並非如此。”
“現金是最好的對沖。我喜歡在這些水平持有約20-25%的現金。隨著VIX上升，我開始配置更多現金，直到VIX超過30時我持有零現金。”
“這家公司[Palantir]以高利潤率和低管理費用運營。一旦在企業內部建立，企業很難說：‘嘿，我不想再使用這個軟體了，我想換軟體。’”
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