TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

綜合分析報告
生成時間 / Generated: 2025-10-16 05:36

執行摘要

當前價格
$195.50
市值
$1013.00B
本益比
34.21
評級
Strong Buy
分數: 82/100

投資論點

核心論點 / Core Thesis:

AI infrastructure monopoly with durable moat and multi-year growth tailwind. 3nm technology leadership with no viable alternatives for Apple/NVIDIA/AMD.

優勢 / Strengths

風險 / Risks

技術分析

技術分數 / Technical Score: 78/100

Strong uptrend (+133% from 52w low), RSI 62.5 (neutral-bullish, not overbought), all MAs bullish. Extended 37% above 200d MA suggests wait for pullback to $185-192 for better entry. Support at $185/$175, resistance at $205/$213/$225.

指標 / Indicator 數值 / Value
50日均線 / 50-Day MA $0.00
200日均線 / 200-Day MA $0.00
RSI (14) 62.5
Beta N/A

基本面分析

基本面分數 / Fundamental Score: 88/100

Monopoly on leading-edge chips (3nm) with 90%+ market share. Q3 $23.5B revenue (+36.5% YoY), Q4 guidance $26.5B (+32%). Margins expanding 54.3%→56%. ROE 28.7%, $35B FCF, fortress balance sheet (0.22 D/E). AI chip demand structural multi-year tailwind.

指標 / Metric 數值 / Value
營收成長 / Revenue Growth 2400.00%
盈餘成長 / Earnings Growth 3150.00%
ROE 2870.00%
負債股本比 / Debt-to-Equity 0.22

估值分析

詳細估值分析由分析引擎生成 / Detailed valuation analysis generated by analysis engine

選擇權策略

選擇權數據可用 / Options data available

隱含波動率 / IV: N/A%

投資建議

Strong Buy

Strong Buy. TSM is a monopoly semiconductor foundry with 90%+ leading-edge market share, trading at fair value with 13% upside. Strong technical setup (RSI 62.5, all MAs bullish) but wait for pullback to $185-195 for better entry. Scale in 3-4% position over 2-3 purchases. Use options for income (cash-secured puts, covered calls) and leverage (bull call spreads). Next catalyst: Q4 earnings Jan 16, 2026.

信心度 / Confidence: High

價格提醒

Ideal Entry - Support Zone
價格 / Price: $185.00
行動 / Action: Start building position (33% of target)
Fair Value Entry
價格 / Price: $195.00
行動 / Action: Add to position (33% of target)
Base Case Target
價格 / Price: $225.00
行動 / Action: Take 25-33% profits
Bull Case Target
價格 / Price: $245.00
行動 / Action: Take 33-50% profits
Stop Loss - 50d MA Support
價格 / Price: $175.00
行動 / Action: Exit all positions if breaks below with volume

風險評估

風險評估由分析引擎生成 / Risk assessment generated by analysis engine

執行計畫

執行計畫由分析引擎生成 / Implementation plan generated by analysis engine