核心論點 / Core Thesis:
AI infrastructure monopoly with durable moat and multi-year growth tailwind. 3nm technology leadership with no viable alternatives for Apple/NVIDIA/AMD.
技術分數 / Technical Score: 78/100
Strong uptrend (+133% from 52w low), RSI 62.5 (neutral-bullish, not overbought), all MAs bullish. Extended 37% above 200d MA suggests wait for pullback to $185-192 for better entry. Support at $185/$175, resistance at $205/$213/$225.
| 指標 / Indicator | 數值 / Value |
|---|---|
| 50日均線 / 50-Day MA | $0.00 |
| 200日均線 / 200-Day MA | $0.00 |
| RSI (14) | 62.5 |
| Beta | N/A |
基本面分數 / Fundamental Score: 88/100
Monopoly on leading-edge chips (3nm) with 90%+ market share. Q3 $23.5B revenue (+36.5% YoY), Q4 guidance $26.5B (+32%). Margins expanding 54.3%→56%. ROE 28.7%, $35B FCF, fortress balance sheet (0.22 D/E). AI chip demand structural multi-year tailwind.
| 指標 / Metric | 數值 / Value |
|---|---|
| 營收成長 / Revenue Growth | 2400.00% |
| 盈餘成長 / Earnings Growth | 3150.00% |
| ROE | 2870.00% |
| 負債股本比 / Debt-to-Equity | 0.22 |
詳細估值分析由分析引擎生成 / Detailed valuation analysis generated by analysis engine
選擇權數據可用 / Options data available
隱含波動率 / IV: N/A%
Strong Buy. TSM is a monopoly semiconductor foundry with 90%+ leading-edge market share, trading at fair value with 13% upside. Strong technical setup (RSI 62.5, all MAs bullish) but wait for pullback to $185-195 for better entry. Scale in 3-4% position over 2-3 purchases. Use options for income (cash-secured puts, covered calls) and leverage (bull call spreads). Next catalyst: Q4 earnings Jan 16, 2026.
信心度 / Confidence: High
風險評估由分析引擎生成 / Risk assessment generated by analysis engine
執行計畫由分析引擎生成 / Implementation plan generated by analysis engine