Conviction Level: Medium-High (75%)
Investment Horizon: 6-12 months
Expected Return: +16% to +35%
Core Investment Case: Intuitive Surgical represents a compelling value opportunity following a 31% decline from highs, trading near 52-week lows despite delivering exceptional Q2 2025 results with 21% revenue growth and 17% procedure volume growth. The company's dominant market position (~60% market share), da Vinci 5 platform success, and accelerating robotic surgery adoption create a strong foundation for recovery.
Primary Trend: Bearish across timeframes with 31% decline from $616 highs
Current Setup: Testing critical support at $430-$425 range (52-week lows)
Momentum: Oversold conditions with RSI at 44.7, potential bullish divergence forming
| Metric | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 Revenue | $2.44B (+21%) | Beat expectations, strong growth |
| Q2 2025 EPS | $2.19 | Beat by 13.47%, exceeded forecast |
| P/E Ratio | 62.8x | Premium but justified by growth |
| ROE | 15.96% | Efficient capital deployment |
| Operating Margin | 39% | Strong profitability |
| Market Share | ~60% | Dominant position |
Sector Performance: Healthcare recovering (+5.37% in August) after YTD underperformance
Market Size: Global robotic surgery market projected to grow from $2.9B (2024) to $9.2B (2034)
Competitive Position: Market leader with substantial competitive moat and ecosystem advantages
Entry Condition: Price holds above $430 with volume confirmation
Initial Size: 1.0% of portfolio
Stop Loss: $410.00
Scale Strategy: Add 1.0% every 2 weeks on pullbacks to $440-$450
Target Position: 3.0% of portfolio
Profit Taking: 25% at $525, 50% at $580
Stop Management: Trail to $450 once above $500
Maximum Position Risk: 3.0% of portfolio
Key Risk Factors:
| Scenario | Target Price | Probability | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | $675 (+50%) | 35% | 18-24 months |
| Base Case | $560 (+25%) | 55% | 12-18 months |
| Bear Case | $380 (-15%) | 10% | Protected by stop loss |